Saturday, April 2, 2011

2011 MLB Preview

The inaugural post on Baseball Rage is here ladies and gentleman! It is that time of year, when baseball finally returns. It means that school is almost over and the summer is almost here. Here are Baseball Rage's official MLB predictions for the 2011 season. (Note that I only went in depth on the AL East predictions because the season has already started and the main writers of Baseball Rage are either Red Sox fans or Yankees fans)

AL East


1. Boston Red Sox                    103-59

2010: 89-73, 3rd place      Manager: Terry Francona
Key Additions: Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Bobby Jenks
Key Losses: Victor Martinez, Adrian Beltre
Strengths: Starting Pitching, Corner Defense, Meat of the order
Weakness: Potential Bullpen issues, catching and shortstop, health
Key Players
1 Jonathan Papelbon- Papelbon has been a huge stiff lately. I still can't get over his blown save in the ALDS against Los Angeles two years ago. As much as I can't stand him because he is way too much talk and not much to back it up lately, Papelbon is vital for the Red Sox chances in October this season. He has the potential to be dominant, but he needs to find an off speed pitch or the Red Sox will continue to struggle in late game situations. He is in a contract year, so either he performs properly or his ass will be shipped out of town in mid-July.
2 Jacoby Ellsbury- Ellsbury was another disappointment for the Sox last season. However, looking at the Red Sox on paper this season, the combination of Ellsbury and Crawford on the base paths should be lethal. Ellsbury remains a dynamic player when healthy, but he unfortunately remains a question mark.
3 Jarrod Saltolomachia- With the departure of Victor Martinez, the catching job is in the hands of Saltolomachia. Martinez was definitively a top five hitting catcher, but he was mediocre in terms of calling pitches. If Saltolomachia can do a better job than Martinez at calling the game, even if he does not put up the offensive numbers, he will play an important role for the Sox.
4 John Lackey- Lackey was disappointing last season. But he was very close to having a good season. He had a lot of outing where he would throw five scoreless innings and then have an unlucky and shitty sixth inning which would result in a loss. I project John Lackey to have a surprise season and be a workhorse for the Sox this season. If he can do this, the Red Sox will be four deep in the postseason at least.
Best Hitter: Adrian Gonzalez 
Speed Demon: Carl Crawford
Spark Plug: Dustin Pedroia
Best Glove: Kevin Youkillis
Ace: Jon Lester
Lights out Reliever: Daniel Bard


Outlook:
The Red Sox had a tough 2010 season full of injuries and other shit. But this is a new season. They went out and made exceptional moves to energize their roster. Boston has one of the most overlooked pitching staffs in baseball as well. If they stay healthy and resolve a few questions, then the Red Sox should be at the very least a playoff team with the potential of winning the World Series. 












2. New York Yankees                93-69

2010: 95-67, 2nd Place     Manager: Joe Girardi 
Key Additions: Russell Martin, Rafael Soriano
Key Losses: None
Strengths: Hitting, Closer and Bullpen
Weakness: Depth in Pitching Staff
Key Players
1 A.J. Burnett- Alright, the honeymoon is over A.J., time to produce. This guy hasn't really been worth the $420 million dollars or whatever the hell they payed him. The Yankees need Burnett more than ever given their weak rotation after C.C. Sabathia. 
2 Derek Jeter- I believe Jeter has a chip on his shoulder after the way the Yankees front office treated him this past offseason. He still is a good shortstop and if he performs, which I think he will, he will add another weapon to the Yankees lineup.
Best Hitter: Robinson Cano
Speed Demon: Brett Gardner
Spark Plug: Nick Swisher
Best Glove: Mark Teixeira 
Ace: C.C. Sabathia
Lights out Reliever: Mariano Rivera
Outlook: The Yankees simply do not have the pitching to win the World Series, but they do have enough offense to steal the AL East. 





3. Tampa Bay Rays                    88-74

2010: 96-66, 1st Place     2010: Joe Madden
Key Additions: Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon
Key Losses: Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Matt Garza, Rafael Soriano
Strengths: Youth, pitching depth
Weakness: Bullpen, middle infield
Key Players
1 Jeremy Hellickson- From what I've heard, Jeremy Hellickson is nasty. If he is nasty, then he will make it seem like the Rays did not lose Matt Garza and they will take a step to restore themselves into contention in the AL.
2 Kyle Farnsworth- We know Farnsworth is at times very good and very effective. But he needs to have a quality season in order for the Rays to have a sniff of the playoffs this season. The Rays lost practically their entire bullpen, but if Farnsworth can provide reassurance, then the Rays are not in too much trouble.
3 B.J. Upton- I remember seeing B.J. Upton in the ALCS three years ago and he was absolutely lights out. But ever since then he's been a disappointment. If Upton returns to that form, he can certainly he 25 home runs and steal 50. There's a chance he can even be a better version of Carl Crawford, but that's certainly a stretch. The point is, a strong year from Upton will provide the Rays with some spark offensively.
4 Manny Ramirez- Ladies and gentleman, Manny Ramirez can still hit a baseball. In a new role at DH, Manny can just focus on hitting the ball. It's a bold prediction, but I say Manny hits at least 20 home runs and I will not be surprised at all if he hits 30.
Best Hitter: Evan Longoria
Speed Demon: B.J. Upton
Spark Plug: Manny Ramirez
Best Glove: B.J. Upton
Ace: David Price
Lights out Reliever: They don't really have one


Outlook:
The Rays are well managed, they are talented in many areas and they have been consistent the past three seasons. Yes they lost a ton of their roster and yes Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon aren't necessarily going to lead the Rays back to the playoffs. But they still have many talented players such as Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton and David Price. The problem for the Rays is that they have too many, "well if they have a good year" kind of guys. B.J. Upton is one of them, Ben Zobrist is a mysterious player, the book is still out on Jeremy Hellickson. So although I believe the Rays have the potential, their are too many if's for them to make the playoffs. 















4. Baltimore Orioles                   82-80

2010: 66-96, 5th Place     Manager: Buck Showalter
Key Additions: Mark Reynolds, Vladimeir Guerrero, Derek Lee, Kevin Gregg, Justin Duchscherer
Key Losses: None
Strengths: Power
Weakness: Starting pitching, bullpen
Key Players
1 Mark Reynolds- Reynolds should be able to hit 30 home runs hitting primarily at Camden Yards. If Reynolds can have a productive season and not strike out too much, then the Orioles will have a definitive power hitter in the middle of their lineup.
2 Matt Wieters- I mean when is this guy going to do something.  I wasted a fantasy draft pick on him last year and I didn't bother this year. Wasn't this guy supposed to be Joe Mauer because right now he looks like John Buck. If Wieters can get going, the Orioles can finally start heading in the right direction.
3 Brian Matusz- This guy has good stuff and I think he is most likely to step up and become the ace of a staff who hasn't had an ace since when, the 80's for christ's sake.
Best Hitter: Adam Jones (I think?)
Speed Demon: Adam Jones (I guess?)
Spark Plug: Vladimeir Guerrero
Ace: Brian Matusz (haha, there can't be hope)
Lights out Reliever: Mike Gonzalez (eh)



Outlook:
There is actually hope for the Orioles. Buck Showalter has a Rex Ryan approach to managing and I think it could work. But the talent is not quite like Rex Ryan had, so this could take some time. But for Baltimore's sake, this year shouldn't be that bad. I mean it can't be worse than Pittsburgh or the New York Mets. 















5. Toronto Blue Jays                  80-82

2010: 85-77, 4th Place     Manager: John Farrell 
Key Additions: Rajai Davis, Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel
Key Losses: Vernon Wells
Strengths: Power Hitting, youth in pitching staff
Weakness: Hitting for average
Key Players
1 Jose Bautista- Definitely one of the weirdest 54 home run seasons baseball has ever seen. Put it this way, if Bautista does that again the Blue Jays will probably not finish in 5th place and they have an outside (very outside actually) chance of contending for the wild card. But Bautista's 2010 season very well could have been a fluke. Do I think he's going to hit 54 fucking bombs like he did last year? Not quite, but 40 is not out of the question.
2 Aaron Hill- It was only because Jose Bautista hit 54 home runs that the Blue Jays exceeded expectations last year because Aaron Hill and to a lesser extent Adam Lind had very subpar seasons. Hill was hitting what, .190 for a good part of the season last year. And this guy was an all-star two seasons ago? I think he definitely can get back to around .270 or .280 and it will help the Blue Jays offense if Hill can have a productive season.
3 Brandon Morrow- Well the truth is with the Blue Jays is that they will need more than Brandon Morrow to have a good season. But I think of all of the Blue Jays young arms that Morrow has the most upside. He was phenomenal in his near no hitter last season and he had a lot more quality starts before he was shut down. Morrow is one of the many pitchers for the Blue Jays including Ricky Romero and Kyle Drabek that need to stay healthy and post productive seasons.

Best Hitter: Jose Bautista (well, maybe)
Speed Demon: Rajai Davis
Spark Plug: Jose Bautista
Ace: Ricky Romero
Lights out Reliever: Octavio Dotel
Outlook: The Blue Jays are heading in the right direction. They have a quality pitching staff, a serviceable bullpen and potentially a deadly offense. But there are a few too many question marks for Toronto. They are a young team and maybe in a few years they could be competing with the Red Sox and Yankees, but for now, the Blue Jays will be a few games over .500 at best. 






AL Central


1. Chicago White Sox                92-70







2. Minnesota Twins                   90-72





3. Detroit Tigers                         85-77



4. Kansas City Royals                73-89



5. Cleveland Indians                   70-92





AL West


1. Oakland A's                            91-71



2. Los Angeles Angels               87-75



3. Texas Rangers                        85-77



4. Seattle Mariners                      64-98



ALDS
Bostonover Oakland    3-1


New York over Chicago    3-1



ALCS
Boston over New York   4-2 




NL East


1. Philadelphia Phillies               104-58













2. Atlanta Braves                         94-68




3. Florida Marlins                        78-84



4. New York Mets                       75-87



5. Washington Nationals              73-89



NL Central


1. Milwaukee Brewers               94-68



2. Cincinnati Reds                      92-70



3. Chicago Cubs                         89-73



4. St. Louis Cardinals                 87-75



5. Houston Astros                      75-87



6. Pittsburgh Pirates                   66-96



NL West


1. San Francisco Giants              95-67



2. Los Angeles Dodgers             87-75



3. Colorado Rockies                   87-75



4. San Diego Padres                   77-85



5. Arizona Diamondbacks          70-92



NLDS
Philadelphia over Milwaukee   3-1



Atlanta over San Francisco   3-1


NLCS
Philadelphia over Atlanta   4-0



World Series
Boston over Philadelphia   4-3 


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